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        儲加息幾無懸念,鮑威爾首秀還透露哪些信號?

          中新經緯客戶端8月25日電 北京時間8月24日晚,美聯儲主席鮑威爾在美國懷俄明州杰克遜霍爾央行年會上首次發言,討論經濟和貨幣政策,這也是他上任以來在央行年會的首秀。此前市場普遍關注的美聯儲加息相關政策路徑得以清晰顯現。

          

          美聯儲主席鮑威爾 來源:中新網

          本次全球央行年會在8月23日至25日召開,盡管歐洲央行行長德拉吉和日本央行行長黑田東彥均未出席,但美聯儲仍賺足眼球。鮑威爾在發言中重申,美聯儲將繼續堅持漸進的加息節奏以支持美國經濟增長。

          鮑威爾表示,盡管近期美國通脹率已接近2%的目標,但目前沒有確切跡象顯示通脹率將加速上升超過2%或者引發經濟過熱,這說明美聯儲采取的漸進加息策略取得了成效。如果美國家庭收入和就業繼續強勁增長,美聯儲進一步漸進加息可能是合適的。

          同時,鮑威爾指出,目前美國經濟仍面臨多項長期結構性挑戰:中低收入階層實際工資數十年來增長緩慢;經濟流動性下降到低于多數其他發達經濟體的水平;隨著退休人口比例上升,解決聯邦政府財政赤字問題愈加緊迫。此外,目前很難判定美國經濟何時或者能否擺脫最近十年來生產率低迷的狀態。

          由于這是鮑威爾出任美聯儲主席以來,在全球央行年會上的的首秀,因此備受市場關注。在市場分析人士看來,鮑威爾講話整體偏“鴿派”。

          MarketWatch報道稱,美國Voya投資管理公司資深市場策略師卡琳卡瓦諾表示,鮑威爾的講話整體較溫和,鮑威爾說通貨膨脹不是一個問題,這對市場來說是令人耳目一新的,一定程度上緩解了市場對美聯儲加息的緊張情緒。

          法國巴黎銀行駐美國高級經濟學家布里克林德懷爾說,鮑威爾發表講話的關鍵點在于美聯儲將繼續保持謹慎態度,但美聯儲仍將加息,只是再次突出強調未來如何加息將密切關注經濟數據。

          在鮑威爾發表講話后,現貨黃金跳漲重返1200大關,刷新日內新高至1208.2美元/盎司,漲逾1.9%,同時創下8月13日以來新高;美元指數跌幅迅速擴大,一度逼近95關口;美股三大股指齊收漲,其中,標普500指數、納斯達克指數均創收盤歷史新高。

          自2015年12月開啟貨幣正常化進程,美聯儲已完成7次利率上調,每次加息25個基點。與此同時,美國經濟基本面保持強勁,二季度GDP增速為4.1%,失業率處于歷史低位,通脹水平有所抬頭,支撐美聯儲進一步加息。此外,美聯儲日前公布8月政策會議紀要,重申漸進加息,延續對經濟和通脹的樂觀觀點,多位與會者建議撤出貨幣政策“寬松”的措辭。但在當前市場普遍預計美聯儲9月大概率加息的背景下,偏鷹程度總體不及預期。

          申萬宏源研報認為,當前貿易政策構成美國經濟前景較大不確定性因素,也將持續擾動未來一段時間的匯率和利率變化。而當前美國“緊貨幣+寬財政”將令利率水平易上難下,或對投資和消費形成擠出。同時,隨著美國經濟中期可能出現的逐步下行風險,美元指數亦或逐步回落。 (中新經緯APP)

        戰略合作
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