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        策略

        2017年5月10日交易日報

        基本面分析: 

        美元兌所有主要貨幣對持續上漲,美元如此強勁有數個理由,但主要原因還是市場預期美聯儲將于6月加息。美聯儲基金期貨表明美聯儲6月加息的概率在100%,12月加息的概率在63%。近來我們愈發確認美聯儲支持盡快加息。美聯儲官員喬治稱,一季度美國經濟增長放緩不足以阻止美聯儲加息,失業率過沖將給經濟擴張帶來風險,而波士頓聯儲主席Eric Rosengren則關注就業,目前利率維持在歷史低位,當前4.4%的失業率水平低于對“充分就業狀態”。據美國勞工部公布的月度職位空缺和勞工流動率調查顯示,美國經濟數據好于預期,但小型企業樂觀指數弱于預期,職位招聘出現上升。

        美聯儲多位官員周二出席講話一致強調支持加息,本因避險退減而上行乏力的金價周二創出兩個月低位,歐洲政治前景的明朗化,投資者目光逐漸轉回各大央行政策前景上,隨著6月份會議臨近,美聯儲正處于加息對黃金讓黃金首當其沖。白銀期貨也連續第16天走低,創下1980年以來最長連跌紀錄。但是持看多的投資者逢低買入也依然能夠提供買盤支持。

        美國石油學會(API)周二(5月9日)公布報告稱,上周美國原油庫存降幅大于預期,因進口減少。API公布,截至5月5日當周,美國原油庫存減少578.9萬桶,至5.225億桶,此外,上周汽油庫存增加316.9萬桶,分析師預估為減少53.8萬桶。上周精煉油庫存減少117.4萬桶,分析師預估為減少100萬桶。美國上周原油日進口量減少56.3萬桶,至740萬桶。上周煉廠原油加工量減少39.5萬桶/日。在API數據公布后,美國WTI原油價格盤后跌幅開始縮減。知名金融博客點評稱,美國上周API原油庫存錄得下降578.9萬桶,降幅為去年12月以來最大,或傳遞了原油庫存已達到峰值的信號。

        【消息面】

        1.法國大選,馬克龍獲勝,而馬克龍對市場的影響是偏向于利好歐元的,所以黃金作為反向金屬,當然會出現下跌。

        2.大小非農均利空,LMCI也利空,三者疊加,黃金空頭強勁。

        3.韓國大選,文在寅勝出,而文在寅是反薩德系統的,這直接導致了市場避險情緒的衰退,而黃金作為一種避險金屬,價格自然隨之走低。

        【今日重點關注的財經數據與事件】

        ① 09:30 中國4月CPI年率

        ② 14:45 法國3月貿易帳、法國3月工業產出月率

        ③ 20:00 歐洲央行行長德拉基在荷蘭下議院就歐洲央行貨幣政策的影響發表看法

        ④ 20:30 美國4月進口物價指數月率

        ⑤ 22:30 美國至5月5日當周EIA原油庫存

        ⑥ 待定 韓國選管委計劃于北京時間07:00-09:00召開全體會議宣布新當選總統

        ⑦ 次日01:20 美聯儲2017年FOMC票委卡什卡利參加一場討論“大到不能倒”的討論會

        操作建議:

        黃金(XAUUSD)1215附近多單進場,止損:1210,止盈:1222附近

                    1225附近空單進場,止損:1228,止盈:1220附近

        原油:(USOIL)47.20附近單進場,止損:47.00,止盈47.60附近

        歐元兌美元(EURUSD)1.08600附近做,止損1.08300,止盈1.09000附近。

        英鎊兌美元(GBPUSD)1.29600附近做,止損:1.29900,止盈:1.29100附近

                            1.28600附近做多,止損:1.28300,止盈:1.29000附近

        注意:此建議亞盤和歐盤操作參考,不做下單依據。

         

        戰略合作
        号百彩票
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